Starmer's Backers Initiate 'Block Andy Burnham' Effort to Block Mayor's Commons Re-entry
Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a concerted effort to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a comeback to the House of Commons. This action follows the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an upcoming by-election.
Significant Hurdles in the Selection Process
Several members on the party's powerful NEC have reportedly predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection process. This is primarily due to the sizable presence of Starmer loyalists on the body who are desperate to avoid any future leadership challenge.
The Labour hierarchy reportedly mobilised following the announcement of the MP's intended departure, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable expense and political risk of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Previously, he prompted consternation in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had encouraged him to run for the party leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a return to parliament to potentially contest the party leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, supporters of the Mayor have warned against exaggerating the level of any planning, suggesting he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would solely re-enter Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.
Political Landscape and Public Approval
Against a backdrop of opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole prominent Labour personality with consistently positive public approval ratings.
Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several obstacles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then win the byelection against competition from Reform UK and independent candidates, all before any possible leadership challenge.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
High-ranking Labour sources have said that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already in progress, with the party's organisation being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally said that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to cease discussion of potential leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
NEC members have allegedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.
Several sources also shared fears about Reform UK attempting to fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.
Union Influence and Procedural Fears
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. It is also possible the body could impose an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
However, one Burnham ally warned against presuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.
The trade unions hold a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now keeping their counsel, sources suggested they would be opposed to anything seen as interference from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The seat in question has a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is likely to mount a strong campaign, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from independent candidates.
Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a requirement that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by some on the backbenches.
The resigning MP confirmed he was stepping down due to declining health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He is also subject to a standards inquiry related to his involvement in an inappropriate online group.
