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Ouch. On one hand, the nation's long-running campaign to organize the Cop31 next year has ended in clear failure.

It campaigned for over 36 months for the rights to put on the largest global climate summit and green trade fair, which would have attracted many thousands of delegates to the city of Adelaide next November.

This won't occur. Instead, the summit known as Cop31 is headed to the resort city of the Turkish coastal city, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Disappointment and Mixed Messages

The result will be a significant disappointment to numerous individuals who had hoped organizing the climate carnival could help accelerate the country's transition from being a carbon-based economy to a clean energy leader, and bring global attention to the existential plight facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been joint hosts.

The procedure that resulted in defeat has been an unclear situation. Recently, there have been questions that Anthony Albanese and other high-ranking officials really wanted the proposal to succeed. His statements were ambiguous at best. It translated to stories in the Australian and international media saying the administration was walking away.

This differed from the communication being relayed at the Cop30 talks in the city of Belem, where the environment minister, Chris Bowen, had just declared the country was "in it to win it".

Ambiguous backing is not a new issue for Australia's Cop31 bid. Although the minister supported it, other high-level figures of the administration have only sometimes appeared to be interested.

DFAT, traditionally responsible for global environmental talks, has been disengaged and sometimes outright opposed.

Evidence suggests the prime minister has viewed UN climate conferences a important focus. He has missed one since becoming prime minister in 2022. We'll never know, but many may question if more could have been done to get the bid over the line.

An Alternative View

That's the negative take. However, another perspective to consider it.

Considering the climate discussions this week in South America – and from an global viewpoint – the announcement on Wednesday night may, perversely, have been the most favorable outcome possible.

Bowen set out on Wednesday an unprecedented deal that he was working on with his Turkish counterpart, Murat Kurum. The Turkish government would be the Cop president, host and effective event manager, and the Australian delegation – the climate minister – would assume a role as "chief negotiator", wrangling nearly 200 countries on the stuff that the countries actually attend for – the discussions on how to together address the climate crisis.

Additionally, there would be a increased emphasis on the Pacific region, including a lead-up event on an Pacific island.

Reasons for Doubt

There are plenty of grounds for scepticism. Turkey and Australia do not have a close relationship. Specific aspects of the agreement had not been completed at the moment of announcement. The entire arrangement could collapse before it begins.

But it could also be a way to salvage something useful from what looked like an impending disaster for the multilateral work on climate change.

The Turkish government is widely seen in the global community as having been determined on causing havoc in the international climate negotiations. This framework is designed to operate by unanimous agreement. Typically, that means if there are multiple countries in the competition those with weaker backing either bow out voluntarily, or a compromise is quietly done to encourage them to step aside.

Turkey plainly had less support than the joint Pacific proposal to organize the summit. Approximately 24 of the 28 nations responsible for nominating next year's venue had backed the Australian bid.

But, uniquely, Turkey refused to yield. The word "bastardry" has been used frequently in the past week, and not just by local commentators.

International Dynamics

Ankara's stubbornness can be read as a reflection of the divided international landscape. Without US participation under the former president, there has been no dominant nation with the influence to stare down the oil producers that provided the Turkish government with some cover.

The Turkish president is considered close to Vladimir Putin. Some countries feared a summit hindered from the top if his administration managed the negotiations. Germany did not want to have to organize an underprepared Cop31 at the UN climate headquarters in the German city, which is what would have happened under international regulations if the deadlock wasn't broken.

A Creative Solution

A path through was needed. International frameworks is flawed and often disconcerting to watch, but global cooperation has demonstrably made a difference in the fight against climate change. This joint approach is a creative idea that maintains progress when it is needed more than ever.

Notwithstanding reasonable concerns of the federal administration over its hypocritical support for increasing carbon-based exports, environmental advocates who attend international meetings see Bowen as a force for good in the negotiations. He has been requested to lead negotiation streams at multiple summits he has attended.

This is significant. Although certain critics have downplayed the role of a "chief negotiator", specialists from research centers and experienced analysts at environmental negotiations say it is pivotal to their positive outcome.

"Every successful Cop has been shaped by a leader directing proceedings who can understand, forge agreement and achieve an significant result. This occurred in the German capital in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. The reverse happened in Copenhagen in 2009," he says. "It's the most important role at the Cop other than making sure that people have food."

Unanswered Questions

There are plenty of unresolved issues. For example, civil society is essential at environmental summits. What, if at all, can the Australian government do to stop a restriction on civil society by the host government?

Possibly little. But that doesn't stop this deal appearing as the best chance available to have a summit that may offer something for the Pacific, the nation and the world. This attempt is justified.